UA 1399 · AUS → EWR

departs 2:30 PM CT · arrives 7:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, 1.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ 2pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.69 in

EWR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1399 · AUS → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?