UA 1401 · ORD → PWM

departs 6:08 PM CT · arrives 9:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?

69% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PWM?

On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
23%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ PWM usually runs smoothly

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at PWM that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

PWM (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1401 · ORD → PWM

Odds over time

How late will it get to PWM?