UA 1421 · ORD → FLL

departs 7:00 AM CT · arrives 11:13 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to FLL?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
18%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at FLL that day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into FLL at that hour are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

FLL (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip2.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1421 · ORD → FLL

Odds over time

How late will it get to FLL?