UA 1431 · JAC → LAX

departs 8:00 AM MT · arrives 9:20 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8am departures from JAC are often late

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAC

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

JAC (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1431 · JAC → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?