UA 1484 · SFO → TPA

departs 11:28 AM PT · arrives 7:47 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±1 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ 11am departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.57 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1484 · SFO → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?