UA 1494 · EWR → DFW

departs 7:00 AM ET · arrives 9:28 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
18%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1494 · EWR → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?