UA 1538 · CMH → IAD

departs 3:14 PM ET · arrives 4:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from CMH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ CMH usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CMH (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1538 · CMH → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?