UA 1561 · IAD → DEN

departs 6:29 AM ET · arrives 8:21 AM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1561 · IAD → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?