UA 1575 · DEN → PHL

departs 9:35 AM MT · arrives 3:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1575 · DEN → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?