UA 1635 · DTW → EWR

departs 7:13 PM ET · arrives 8:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at DTW that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling5,240 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.15 in

EWR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1635 · DTW → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?