Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1641 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

UA 1641 · ORD → CLE

departs 7:59 PM CT · arrives 10:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CLE?

On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
24%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ CLE usually runs smoothly

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

CLE (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1641 · ORD → CLE

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLE?