UA 1684 · SFO → LIH

departs 4:55 PM PT · arrives 7:42 PM HT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Arrivals into LIH at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

LIH (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.91 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1684 · SFO → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?