UA 1794 · LGA → IAH

departs 3:38 PM ET · arrives 6:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at IAH that day

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from LGA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1794 · LGA → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?