UA 1795 · DEN → LEX

departs 5:30 PM MT · arrives 10:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±1 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LEX?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LEX (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1795 · DEN → LEX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LEX?