Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Thursday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1799 SCHEDULED

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

UA 1799 · LAS → SFO

departs 1:34 PM PT · arrives 3:16 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±6 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from LAS are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1799 · LAS → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?