UA 1830 · IAH → BWI

departs 6:25 PM CT · arrives 11:04 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at IAH that day

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.05 in

BWI (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1830 · IAH → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?