Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1839 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

UA 1839 · ORD → DSM

departs 9:25 PM CT · arrives 10:56 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

73% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
26%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
28%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ DSM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

DSM (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.38 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1839 · ORD → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?