Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1841 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

UA 1841 · SMF → DEN

departs 6:37 PM PT · arrives 9:59 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1841 · SMF → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?