UA 1844 · RDU → EWR

departs 2:55 PM ET · arrives 4:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
30%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1844 · RDU → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?