UA 1864 · LAS → IAH

departs 4:46 PM PT · arrives 9:56 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↑ 4pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility9.66667 mi Precip0.33 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1864 · LAS → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?