UA 1920 · STL → ORD

departs 1:29 PM CT · arrives 2:58 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

75% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
24%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
29%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2.66667 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling567 ft Visibility3.33333 mi Precip0.56 in

ORD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.88 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1920 · STL → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?