UA 1926 · EWR → SMF

departs 6:29 PM ET · arrives 9:32 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 6pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1926 · EWR → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?