UA 1938 · JAX → IAD

departs 12:39 PM ET · arrives 2:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX

↑ 12pm departures from JAX are often late

↓ This flight has been late 8% of the time recently

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JAX (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

IAD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1938 · JAX → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?