UA 197 · NRT → GUM

departs 5:00 PM JST · arrives 9:55 PM ChST

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at GUM more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to GUM?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
20%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 31 kt, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at GUM that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at NRT

↓ Other factors

↓ Arrivals into GUM at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

NRT (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

GUM (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 197 · NRT → GUM

Odds over time

How late will it get to GUM?