Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1997 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

UA 1997 · IAD → EWR

departs 10:29 PM ET · arrives 11:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±7 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ 10pm departures from IAD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1997 · IAD → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?