Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2000 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

UA 2000 · ORD → STL

departs 2:20 PM CT · arrives 3:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±8 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

↓ UA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

STL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2000 · ORD → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?