UA 2004 · EWR → SFO

departs 4:00 PM ET · arrives 7:07 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2004 · EWR → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?