Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2012 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

UA 2012 · BWI → DEN

departs 4:23 PM ET · arrives 6:18 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 29h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from BWI are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2012 · BWI → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?