Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2126 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

UA 2126 · SFO → AUS

departs 6:27 PM PT · arrives 12:13 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ 6pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.69 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2126 · SFO → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?