UA 2131 · ATL → IAD

departs 7:36 PM ET · arrives 9:40 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from ATL are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2131 · ATL → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?