Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2144 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

UA 2144 · ORD → STL

departs 7:55 PM CT · arrives 9:26 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

77% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
23%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,367 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

STL (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,420 ft Visibility4.4 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2144 · ORD → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?