Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2156 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

UA 2156 · IAD → LAS

departs 1:00 PM ET · arrives 3:09 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±3 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ This flight has been late 10% of the time recently

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2156 · IAD → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?