UA 2182 · ORD → PHL

departs 11:33 AM CT · arrives 2:47 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±7 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 11am departures from ORD are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.88 in

PHL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling9,200 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2182 · ORD → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?