Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2186 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

UA 2186 · SNA → EWR

departs 9:15 PM PT · arrives 5:33 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ EWR is busy at that time

↓ 9pm departures from SNA are usually not late

↓ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2186 · SNA → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?