UA 21 · AMS → IAH

departs 11:00 AM CEST · arrives 2:24 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at AMS

↓ Other factors

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AMS (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

IAH (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility9.66667 mi Precip0.33 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 21 · AMS → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?