UA 2234 · SAN → LAX

departs 5:05 PM PT · arrives 6:22 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ This flight has been late 9% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at LAX that day

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2234 · SAN → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?