UA 2270 · DEN → AUS

departs 1:44 PM MT · arrives 4:58 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±2 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, 1.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,233 ft Visibility5.66667 mi Precip2.64 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2270 · DEN → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?