UA 241 · BNA → IAH

departs 11:22 AM CT · arrives 1:33 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↑ 11am departures from BNA are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 241 · BNA → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?