UA 2430 · ORD → PHL

departs 2:30 PM CT · arrives 5:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

79% chance · ±0 pts +29 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
20%
15–30 min late
37%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
35%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at PHL that day

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.96 in

PHL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2430 · ORD → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?