UA 2432 · SBP → SFO

departs 8:02 AM PT · arrives 9:18 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
17%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ 8am departures from SBP are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ SBP is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

SBP (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2432 · SBP → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?