UA 2485 · BNA → EWR

departs 9:31 AM CT · arrives 12:53 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts −17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2485 · BNA → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?