UA 2489 · SDQ → EWR

departs 1:10 PM AST · arrives 5:18 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±3 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

SDQ (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

EWR (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2489 · SDQ → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?