Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2492 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

UA 2492 · LAS → IAH

departs 12:14 PM PT · arrives 5:25 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ UA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2492 · LAS → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?