UA 249 · ORD → EWR

departs 4:02 PM CT · arrives 7:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

83% chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
17%
15–30 min late
41%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
31%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.99 in

EWR (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 249 · ORD → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?