Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2621 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

UA 2621 · IAH → AUS

departs 8:18 PM CT · arrives 9:25 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

73% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
25%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
33%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
16%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at IAH that day

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.05 in

AUS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.69 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2621 · IAH → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?