UA 2622 · FAT → LAX

departs 8:06 AM PT · arrives 9:24 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 8am departures from FAT are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

FAT (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2622 · FAT → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?