UA 2649 · SFO → SBP

departs 10:47 AM PT · arrives 12:03 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at SBP more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SBP?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

SBP (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2649 · SFO → SBP

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBP?