UA 2653 · CMH → ORD

departs 8:45 AM ET · arrives 9:15 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CMH (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.96 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2653 · CMH → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?