Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 267 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Today

UA 267 · PHL → SFO

departs 9:25 AM ET · arrives 12:34 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 267 · PHL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?