UA 2748 · IAH → PHL

departs 12:20 PM CT · arrives 4:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at PHL that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.05 in

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2748 · IAH → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?